The Law of Dimishing Tobacco Sales

Piere Lemieux's article on the law of diminishing returns for the tobacco industry made some very interesting points. I think the best point to show the diminishing return on tobacco intervention is the point that states, most of the easily persuaded people have already quit from the success of the campaign. The people that are left still smoking are going to be the harder ones to break. This means the government will need to keep spending more money on and make less and less change. The point following about how too much information may be less effective also helps the drive his point home. After so much information is given it would just be ignored, they get the point. I remember when the mandatory 30% labels came out on the cigarette packages and for the first few months I bet they did slow down some smokers, but for the most part people just started to look past them, all they wanted was a cigarette! He also stated in Quebec they just made covers for their packs.
I think Lemieux has made some excellent points, with much truth behind them. I think however that he might be a bit far off when he says that one study shows “most smokers overestimate the risks of smoking”. I think if people know the outcome of smoking and continue to do so only to find out in 30-40 years that they now have lung disease or worse, they gave it to their spouse, they do not overestimate the risks of smoking.
I think the government reached the point of diminishing returns probably only a few years ago. You could see the different ads for their anti-smoking campaigns changing and becoming more and more. In the ads now they are targeting younger smokers in hopes to get them to quit before they even get started. They are aiming straight at the hearts of the youths, right at their video games. The newest ads are asking which one these teens want to spend their money on.
As for the supply and demand side of the tobacco companies, the warnings on the tobacco packaging have had some success. As it states, sales are dropping. This means that the demand for cigarettes has decreased. As the demand decreases, this leaves a surplus of cigarettes, which should drive the prices down, however the drop in sales is leading tobacco companies toward higher costs of producing for the lower demand.
On the other side of the governments debate for this subject is the taxes that are collected on these “sin” products. Along with the lower demand for these products, the amount taxes collected for them will decrease along with sales. And the more governments are successful, the less in taxes will be collected.